Abstract
BACKGROUND: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a highly prevalent and burdensome condition worldwide that significantly affects health care systems and the quality of life of patients. However, a comprehensive assessment of its global epidemiology, trends, and future projections remains limited. The aim of this study was to estimate the global, regional, and national burdens of GERD from 1990 to 2021, stratified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) region, along with projecting its future burden up to 2050. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Study, we analysed the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of GERD. Trends over time were examined using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) analysis. Future projections were made using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models. RESULTS: The global prevalence of GERD increased from 450.76 million cases in 1990 to 825.60 million cases in 2021, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 9838.60 per 100,000 population in 2021 (EAPC = 0.37, 95% UI: 0.29-0.46). GERD caused 6.34 million (95% UI: 3.19-11.24) DALYs in 2021, an increase from the 3.47 million (95% UI: 1.75-6.13) DALYs in 1990, with YLDs mirroring this trend. The burden was consistently greater in females than in males. Age-specific rates peaked in the 70-74 years age group, whereas the highest absolute case numbers occurred in the 35-39 years age group. Moreover, the highest ASPR was observed in the low-middle-SDI region, with the middle-SDI region experiencing the fastest growth. By 2050, the prevalence of GERD is projected to exceed 1.2 billion cases worldwide. CONCLUSION: GERD represents a growing global health burden, with disparities observed according to sex, age, and socioeconomic status. Targeted public health strategies are essential to mitigate its impact and improve disease management.