Abstract
BACKGROUND: Long-term spatio-temporal analyses of influenza in coastal mega-cities remain limited. This study explores influenza dynamics in Tianjin, China (2010–2023) to inform prevention strategies. METHODS: The data was based on case data from Tianjin (2010–2023) and the Tianjin Statistical Yearbook. Temporal trends, spatial auto-correlation (global and local Moran’s I), and spatio-temporal clusters (scan statistics) were assessed. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2023, Tianjin reported a cumulative total of 195,426 influenza cases. The eastern region displayed the top three prevalence indices among the sixteen districts. Spatial auto-correlation analyses indicated that the evolution of influenza incidence rates in Tianjin follows a pattern of being “high along the eastern coast”. The analysis of spatio-temporal scanning identified the most significant cluster in eastern Tianjin, occurring from December 2017 to May 2019. This cluster covered four districts with a relative risk (RR) of 7.73 and log likelihood ratio (LLR) of 6597.49 (P < 0.001). Additionally, a similar cluster emerged in the eastern region of Tianjin from December 2019 to December 2023, covering three districts (RR: 27.41; LLR: 74011.43; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Mega-city influenza prevention prioritizes high-economic-activity zones. Coastal mega-cities target influenza spread in old-new economic transition areas. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-026-01873-8.