Epizootiology of African Swine Fever in the Croatian Wild Boar Population and the Estimation of the Surviving Dynamics (2023-2024)

克罗地亚野猪种群非洲猪瘟流行病学及存活动态估计(2023-2024)

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Abstract

This study integrates data on the prevalence, infection dynamics and risks associated with African swine fever virus (ASFV) outbreaks in Croatian wild boar during 2023-2024. Although the overall ASFV DNA prevalence in Croatia was 0.24%, the highest prevalence (2.29% in 2023 and 4.69% in 2024) was recorded in Vukovar-Srijem County. Genetic typing identified ASFV genotype II, subgroup 19, consistent with strains isolated from domestic pigs in Croatia and circulating in neighboring countries. Anti-ASFV specific antibodies were detected in 10.34% of wild boar tested in counties with previously reported DNA findings. In Vukovar-Srijem County, 4.60% of wild boar were positive for both, ASFV DNA and antibodies, suggesting ongoing virus infection, whereas the proportion of boar positive only for antibodies was 5.75%, indicating survival of acute infection. Statistical analysis revealed an increase in ASFV DNA detection from 2023 to 2024 (p = 0.043), with a higher prevalence in carcasses than in hunted animals (p = 0.001), highlighting the need for passive monitoring. While gender showed no statistical significance, a higher infection rate was observed in older animals (p = 0.001). The identified course of infection involved spillover events between domestic pigs and wild boar, with a significant anthropogenic influence.

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