From pathogens to policy: using network analysis to map the knowledge base on human-zoonotic disease dynamics underpinning global pandemic policy

从病原体到政策:运用网络分析绘制支撑全球大流行病政策的人畜共患病动态知识库

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Abstract

Zoonotic disease dynamics (ZDD), encompassing pathogen spillover, transmission pathways and host-pathogen interactions, are widely acknowledged as drivers of emerging infectious diseases. Yet, the extent to which recent pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPPR) policies - the integrated frameworks guiding international efforts to anticipate and manage infectious disease threats - are grounded in this expanding body of scientific research remains unclear. This study examines how research on ZDD is cited in six influential global policy reports published between 2021 and 2023. We employed citation network analysis and qualitative profiling to compare references cited in these reports with those cited by a systematically identified set of broad-scope scientific publications on ZDD. Of the 313 references across the six reports, only 59 (19%) pertained to ZDD, a relatively small proportion considering that zoonotic diseases are framed as primary drivers of pandemic risk in these same reports. The academic literature is highly diverse and predominantly focused on specific pathogens (66%), with few studies offering a broad-scope perspective (4%) that addresses the complexity of ZDD. The citation network of the selected broad-scope literature was fragmented revealing low convergence of the knowledge base. Shared references between reports and scientific literature (n = 31) were mostly modelling studies (45%) or reviews (35%). Secondary data predominated (45%), and only 6% relied primarily on original field or laboratory data. Foundational studies were often overrepresented. This narrow and selective evidence base risks obscuring key uncertainties and limiting the diversity of perspectives that inform global PPPR strategies. Our findings highlight the value of more systematic approaches to scientific evidence use in PPPR policy documents. Strengthening the science-policy interface in PPPR requires greater engagement with emerging research, epistemic diversity, and the acknowledgment of uncertainty - essential steps toward building more adaptive, equitable and resilient strategies.

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