Abstract
The objective is to examine the predictors of attrition in male and female candidates undergoing a 10-week early career military training program. 1006 candidates (79.5% male, 24.7 ± 3.2 years) consented to participating in a larger study examining predictors of injury during US Marine Corps Officer Candidates School (OCS). Participants completed a blood draw, demographic and psychological characteristics questionnaires, and two fitness tests. Participants were then grouped based on successful completion of OCS or not. Associations between potential predictors and attrition were analyzed using simple logistic regression analyses, followed by a backward stepwise elimination method. Area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the accuracy of the attrition prediction model. 260 candidates (25.8%) attritted over the 10-week training, with the highest number of discharges during week 5. Musculoskeletal injury (MSKI) was the most common cause of attrition (30%), followed by non-MSKI medical (21.5%), and volitional withdrawals (19.6%). Sex, body mass index (BMI), resilience, initial physical fitness test score, combat fitness test (CFT) score, and prior military service were all significantly associated with attrition from OCS (all p < .05). The final prediction model of attrition included CFT score (p = .027) and resilience (p = .018). Multiple demographic, psychological, and fitness characteristics are associated with attrition from an early career military training course (OCS) and may be utilized as part of early screening procedures to identify and provide guidance for individuals at risk for not completing OCS.