Abstract
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the burden of neck pain from 1990 to 2021 and predict its trends over the next three decades, providing evidence for targeted interventions. METHODOLOGY: This study is a secondary analysis of publicly available national-level estimates for China from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, covering 1990-2021, with projections to 2050. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate for neck pain were calculated. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). The age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to explore underlying drivers of disease burden, while the Bayesian-APC (BAPC) model was applied to predict future trends. RESULTS: In 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rate for neck pain in China were 567.23 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 448.497 - 699.796, per 100000 population), 2549.87 (95% UI: 2007.887 - 3141.637, per 100000 population), and 254.77 (95% UI: 166.889 - 357.934, per 100000 population), respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, the EAPCs for ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rates were 0.08% (95%CI: 0.06 - 0.11), 0.13% (95%CI: 0.10 - 0.16), and 0.13% (95%CI: 0.10 - 0.16), respectively. APC analysis identified age as the dominant contributing factor, with the highest burden observed in the 70 - 74-year age group and a consistently greater burden among females. Projections from the BAPC model suggest that ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized DALYs rates will decline by 2025, although sex-based differences are expected to persist. CONCLUSION: Neck pain remains a significant public health concern in China, particularly among elderly individuals and females.