Abstract
Background: Atrial high-rate episodes (AHREs) detected by pacemakers are linked to increased stroke risk. The predictive value of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) for AHREs in pacemaker patients remains uncertain. This study evaluated baseline hs-cTnI as a predictor for new-onset AHREs in this population. Methods: This prospective cohort study enrolled 272 patients undergoing permanent pacemaker implantation. We excluded 40 patients with pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF), leaving a total of 232 patients (mean age 63.7 years; 53.4% male) in the at-risk cohort. Baseline hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP were measured. The primary endpoint was new-onset AHREs (>175 bpm), detected by device interrogation over a median follow-up of 12 months. Results: New-onset AHREs occurred in 65 (28.0%) patients. Contrary to our hypothesis, baseline hs-cTnI levels did not differ significantly between patients who developed AHREs and those who did not (median 16.5 vs. 15.7 pg/mL, p = 0.148). Multivariable Cox regression confirmed that neither hs-cTnI nor NT-proBNP were independent predictors. Instead, Sick Sinus Syndrome (HR 2.10, p < 0.001), heart failure (HR 1.78, p = 0.010), and Left Atrial Diameter (HR 1.15, p = 0.006) were significant independent predictors. Conclusions: In this high-risk pacemaker cohort, baseline hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP did not predict short-term new-onset AHREs. Established electrical and structural substrates appear to be the overwhelming drivers of arrhythmia in this specific population.