Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but data on the cirrhosis burden and trends in children and adolescents are sparse. METHODS: Data on cirrhosis during 2000-2021, including global-, regional, and national-level numbers of cases, incidence, and prevalence, were collected by the GBD 2021 database. Trends across age groups, periods, and birth cohorts were analysed using the age-period-cohort (APC) model; epidemiological trajectories were predicted using the Bayesian APC (BAPC) model. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2021, cirrhosis incidence decreased in the 5-9 and 10-14-year age groups but increased in the 15-19 and 20-24-year age groups. In the 15-19- and 20-24-year age groups, the respective proportion of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B decreased from 11 to 4% and from 35 to 23%, while the respective proportion due to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) increased from 87 to 93% and from 55 to 67%. Regionally, the proportion of cirrhosis attributable to HBV decreased over time, while MAFLD became the leading cause among individuals aged 15-24 years. Overall, the effects of cirrhosis among children and adolescents were consistent across socio-demographic index regions and globally, increasing with age but decreasing with period and cohort. However, the period and cohort effects of MAFLD-related cirrhosis increased regionally and globally. The BAPC model predicted that the incidence of cirrhosis among children and adolescents will continue to rise until 2050. CONCLUSION: During 2000-2021, the burden associated with hepatitis B declined, while the proportion of cirrhosis caused by MAFLD has been steadily increasing. The APC model revealed a consistent global trend of cirrhosis risk, increasing with age but decreasing by period and cohort.