Abstract
The current status and trends in the burden of dengue among adults aged 20-49 years are still unclear. In light of this, based on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, the study explored the global burden of dengue in this age groups, as well as the regional and national burdens, from 1990 to 2021, in aid of more effective strategies for providence and control. We retrieved data from the GBD 2021 with age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) due to dengue. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) quantified trends in these rates. The analysis examined temporal changes in disease burden, the relationship between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden, and the contributions of population growth, increasing age, and epidemiological changes. Projections for 2022 to 2030 were also included. In 2021, the global ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for dengue among adults were recorded at 763.39, 45.54, 0.22, and 19.67 per 100,000 population (person-year), respectively. Notably, these metrics exhibited EAPCs exceeding 2% from 1990 to 2021. The middle SDI region showed the highest ASIR and ASPR for dengue, while the low-middle SDI region showed the highest ASMR and ASDR. Among the 21 GBD regions, Tropical Latin America showed the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR, while Southeast Asia showed the highest ASMR. Overall, a weak negative linear relationship occurred between the SDI and various indicators of dengue burden. Notably, increases in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR were most pronounced in high-income North America, while the largest decreases were examined in the eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, ASIR and ASPR were higher in women, whereas ASMR and ASDR were higher in men. Projection analyses showed that by 2030, the ASIR and ASMR for dengue in adults were expected to increase to 872.94 per 100,000 population and 0.24 per 100,000 population, respectively. The global, regional, and national dengue burden in adults aged 20-49 years varied significantly, with steady growth of over 2% annually between 1990 and 2021.