Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Liver disease is a leading cause of mortality in the US. Liver transplant can be a lifesaving procedure for patients with severe liver disease. OBJECTIVE: To assess temporal trends and geographic variance in liver-related mortality (LRM) and liver transplant in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, the frequencies and geographic variance of LRM in 2018 and 2021 were obtained in a cross-sectional analysis of the Underlying Cause of Death data available on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Epidemiologic Research database. The number of livers donated and transplanted according to the state of residence of each donor and recipient were obtained from the United Network for Organ Sharing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Liver-related mortality in 2018 and 2021, overall and by state, as well as the liver transplant rate according to state of residence of recipient and donor. RESULTS: Overall LRM in the US was 93 418 in 2021, with a crude rate of 28.1 per 100 000 individuals, an increase of 19.1% compared with rates seen immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2018 (77 282 [23.6 per 100 000 individuals]). Liver-related mortality in 2021 varied several-fold between states, from 18.4 per 100 000 individuals per year in Utah to 65.9 per 100 000 individuals per year in New Mexico. The mean number of liver-related deaths per transplant from all donor sources (in state and out of state) was 7.2 in the lowest LRM quintile compared with 21.5 in the highest (95% CI, 12.1-16.6; SE, 1.1; P < .001). Ten states had no liver transplant center. Paradoxically, residents of states with the highest LRM had a much lower rate of liver transplant (at any location) from organs procured from in-state residents than states with the lowest LRM quintile (13.0% vs 35.2% in-state donors; 95% CI, 14.1%-30.3%; SE, 3.9%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study suggests that rates of LRM have increased dramatically since the COVID-19 pandemic and vary several-fold between states. Rates of liver transplant are paradoxically lowest among residents living in states with the highest LRM. These findings highlight apparent geographic disparities in access to liver transplant that allocation policy cannot address.