Abstract
IMPORTANCE: The associations of low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) with long-term weight management remains unclear, and the source and quality of macronutrients within LCDs are less explored. OBJECTIVES: To prospectively examine associations between changes in LCD indices and weight change among US adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective cohort study included initially healthy participants at baseline from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII; 1991-2015), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986-2018). Data analysis was performed between November 2022 and April 2023. EXPOSURES: Five LCD indices were examined: (1) a total LCD (TLCD) emphasizing overall lower carbohydrate intake; (2) an animal-based LCD (ALCD) that emphasized animal-sourced protein and fat; (3) a vegetable-based LCD (VLCD) that emphasized plant-sourced protein and fat; (4) a healthy LCD (HLCD) emphasizing less refined carbohydrates, more plant protein, and healthy fat; and (5) an unhealthy LCD (ULCD) emphasizing less healthful carbohydrates, more animal protein, and unhealthy fat. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The outcome of interest was 4-year changes in self-reported body weight. RESULTS: A total of 123 332 participants (mean [SD] age, 45.0 [9.7] years; 103 320 [83.8%] female) were included in this study. The median carbohydrate intake (as a percentage of energy) of the highest quintiles of TLCD score at baseline ranged from 38.3% in HPFS to 40.9% in NHSII. Mean weight gain over 4-year intervals among participants varied from 0.8 kg in the HPFS to 1.8 kg in the NHSII. After adjusting for demographics and baseline and concomitant changes of selected lifestyle factors, each 1-SD increase in TLCD score was associated with 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08) kg more weight gain over the 4-year periods. Similarly, participants gained 0.13 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.14) kg per each 1-SD increase in ALCD score and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.40) kg per each 1-SD change in ULCD score. In contrast, each 1-SD increase in VLCD score was associated with 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.04) kg less weight gain, and each 1-SD increase in HLCD score was associated with 0.36 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) kg less weight gain. The associations were more pronounced among obese individuals (per 1-SD increase in HLCD score: BMI ≥30, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80, 0.97] kg less weight gain; BMI <25, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.20, 0.26] kg less weight gain; P for interaction < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that the quality of LCDs may play a critical role in modulating long-term weight change. Only LCDs that emphasized high-quality protein, fat, and carbohydrates from whole grains and other plant-based foods were associated with less weight gain.