Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the standard of care for advanced rectal cancer. Yet, estimating response to CRT remains an unmet clinical challenge. OBJECTIVE: To investigate and better understand the transcriptomic factors associated with response to neoadjuvant CRT and survival in patients with advanced rectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A single-center, retrospective, case series was conducted at a comprehensive cancer center. Pretreatment biopsies from 298 patients with rectal cancer who were later treated with neoadjuvant CRT between April 1, 2004, and September 30, 2020, were analyzed by RNA sequencing. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022. EXPOSURES: Chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision or watch-and-wait management. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Transcriptional subtyping was performed by consensus molecular subtype (CMS) classification. Immune cell infiltration was assessed using microenvironment cell populations-counter (MCP-counter) scores and single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA). Patients with surgical specimens of tumor regression grade 3 to 4 or whose care was managed by the watch-and-wait approach for more than 3 years were defined as good responders. RESULTS: Of the 298 patients in the study, 205 patients (68.8%) were men, and the median age was 61 (IQR, 52-67) years. Patients classified as CMS1 (6.4%) had a significantly higher rate of good response, albeit survival was comparable among the 4 subtypes. Good responders exhibited an enrichment in various immune-related pathways, as determined by ssGSEA. Microenvironment cell populations-counter scores for cytotoxic lymphocytes were significantly higher for good responders than nonresponders (median, 0.76 [IQR, 0.53-1.01] vs 0.58 [IQR, 0.43-0.83]; P < .001). Cytotoxic lymphocyte MCP-counter score was independently associated with response to CRT, as determined in the multivariable analysis (odds ratio, 3.81; 95% CI, 1.82-7.97; P < .001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, including postoperative pathologic factors, revealed the cytotoxic lymphocyte MCP-counter score to be independently associated with recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.92; P = .03) and overall survival (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.83; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this case series of patients with rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant CRT, the cytotoxic lymphocyte score in pretreatment biopsy samples, as computed by RNA sequencing, was associated with response to CRT and survival. This finding suggests that the cytotoxic lymphocyte score might serve as a biomarker in personalized multimodal rectal cancer treatment.