Abstract
COVID-19 has had a detrimental effect on the provision of cancer surgery, but its impact beyond the first 6 months of the pandemic remains unclear. We used data on 799 220 cancer surgeries performed in Ontario, Canada, during 2018-2021 and segmented regression to address this knowledge gap. With the arrival of the first COVID-19 wave (March 2020), mean cancer surgical volume decreased by 57%. Surgical volume then rose by 2.5% weekly and reached prepandemic levels in 8 months. The surgical backlog after the first wave was 47 639 cases. At the beginning of the second COVID-19 wave (January 2021), mean cancer surgical volume dropped by 22%. Afterward, surgical volume did not actively recover (2-sided P = .25), resulting in a cumulative backlog of 66 376 cases as of August 2021. These data urge the strengthening of the surgical system to quickly clear the backlog in anticipation of a tsunami of newly diagnosed cancer patients in need of surgery.