Abstract
IMPORTANCE: China, which has one-third of the worldwide smoking population, has a substantial cancer burden, with lung cancer being the leading cause of cancer-related death. The effectiveness of lung cancer screening for mortality reduction has been confirmed, but the cost-effectiveness of diverse screening modalities remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) with a biomarker (micro-RNA signature classifier [MSC]) with that of LDCT alone by screening interval and cumulative smoking exposure. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this economic evaluation, a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis used Markov state transition models that simulated the 1947 to 1971 China birth cohort. Simulated individuals in 8 cohorts of 10 000 entered the study between ages 50 and 74 years and were followed up until death or age 79 years, corresponding to a study period from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2050. The model was run with a cycle length of 1 year. All the transition probabilities were validated, and health utility values were extracted from published literature. Cost parameters were derived from the databases of local medical insurance bureaus. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes included life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with future costs and outcomes discounted by 5%. Screening strategies with a mean ICER less than Chinese yuan (CNY) 212 676 per QALY gained were deemed to be cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness of 7 alternative screening strategies with a screening starting age of 50 years, minimum cumulative smoking exposure of 20 vs 30 pack-years, and screening interval of annual vs 1 time was estimated, including the 2021 China guideline-recommended strategy (LDCT, annual, 30 pack-years) and the 2018 China guideline-recommended strategy (LDCT, annual, 20 pack-years). RESULTS: In a simulated population of 80 000 individuals, the conjunctive LDCT and MSC screening strategy was estimated to obtain an ICER of CNY -793 995.17 to 254 417.46 (minimum cumulative smoking exposure, 20-30 pack-years) per QALY gained compared with LDCT screening alone. China's 2021 guideline-recommended strategy was not cost-effective compared with the 2018 guideline-recommended strategy, with higher costs and fewer QALYs gained; the QALY loss ranged from 0.02 to 0.15 per person and the increase in cost ranged from CNY 945.89 to CNY 5131.29 per person. LDCT and MSC screening beginning at age 70 to 74 years in individuals with a 20 pack-year smoking history was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of CNY -793 995.17 per QALY gained. Lowering the minimum cumulative smoking exposure for screening from 30 to 20 pack-years and maintaining annual screening were associated with greater cost savings regardless of the screening tool. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This economic evaluation found that China's 2018 recommendation for lung cancer screening was more cost-effective than the 2021 recommendation. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening was improved when MSC was included with LDCT. These findings may be useful for the modification of guidelines for lung cancer screening.