Abstract
IMPORTANCE: In the US, live donor (LD) kidney transplant rates have decreased in pediatric recipients. Pediatric patients with kidney failure will likely need more than 1 kidney transplant during their lifetime, but the optimal sequence of transplant (ie, deceased donor [DD] followed by LD or vice versa) is not known. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether pediatric recipients should first receive a DD allograft followed by an LD allograft (DD-LD sequence) or an LD allograft followed by a DD allograft (LD-DD sequence). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This decision analytical model examined US pediatric patients with kidney failure included in the US Renal Data System 2019 Report who were waiting for a kidney transplant, received a transplant, or experienced graft failure. INTERVENTIONS: Kidney transplant sequences of LD-DD vs DD-LD. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Difference in projected life-years between the 2 sequence options. RESULTS: Among patients included in the analysis, the LD-DD sequence provided more net life-years in those 5 years of age (1.82 [95% CI, 0.87-2.77]) and 20 years of age (2.23 [95% CI, 1.31-3.15]) compared with the DD-LD sequence. The net outcomes in patients 10 years of age (0.36 [95% CI, -0.51 to 1.23] additional life-years) and 15 years of age (0.64 [95% CI, -0.15 to 1.39] additional life-years) were not significantly different. However, for those aged 10 years, an LD-DD sequence was favored if eligibility for a second transplant was low (2.09 [95% CI, 1.20-2.98] additional life-years) or if the LD was no longer available (2.32 [95% CI, 1.52-3.12] additional life-years). For those aged 15 years, the LD-DD sequence was favored if the eligibility for a second transplant was low (1.84 [95% CI, 0.96-2.72] additional life-years) or if the LD was no longer available (2.49 [95% CI, 1.77-3.27] additional life-years). Access to multiple DD transplants did not compensate for missing the LD opportunity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that the decreased use of LD kidney transplants in pediatric recipients during the past 2 decades should be scrutinized. Given the uncertainty of future recipient eligibility for retransplant and future availability of an LD transplant, the LD-DD sequence is likely the better option. This strategy of an LD transplant first would not only benefit pediatric recipients but allow DD kidneys to be used by others who do not have an LD option.