Abstract
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) risk prediction models based on Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-antibody testing have shown potential for screening of NPC; however, the long-term stability is unclear. Here, we investigated the kinetics of two EBV-antibody NPC risk scores within the Taiwan NPC Multiplex Family Study. Among 545 participants with multiple blood samples, we evaluated the stability of a 2-marker enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay score and 13-marker multiplex serology score using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) by fitting a linear mixed model that accounted for the clustering effect of multiple measurements per subject and age. We also estimated the clustering of positive tests using Fleiss's kappa statistic. Over an average 20-year follow-up, the 2-marker score showed high stability over time, whereas the 13-marker score was more variable (p < .05). Case-control status is associated with the kinetics of the antibody response, with higher ICCs among cases. Positive tests were more likely to cluster within the same individual for the 2-marker score than the 13-marker score (p < .05). The 2-marker score had an increase in specificity from ~90% for single measurement to ~96% with repeat testing. The 13-marker score had a specificity of ~73% for a single measurement that increased to ~92% with repeat testing. Among individuals who developed NPC, none experienced score reversion. Our findings suggest that repeated testing could improve the specificity of NPC screening in high-risk NPC multiplex families. Further studies are required to determine the impact on sensitivity, establish optimal screening intervals, and generalize these findings to general population settings in high-risk regions.