Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study examines the global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) attributable to diet low in milk among middle-aged and elderly populations from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends to 2050. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were obtained via the Global Health Data Exchange. The burden was assessed using number of cases and rates of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) and death, stratified by age, sex, region, nation, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Temporal trends were analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and future trends were projected using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model. RESULTS: In 2021, the global DALY and death cases of CRC attributable to a diet low in milk among middle-aged and elderly populations was 2.71 million and 0.14 million, respectively, representing increases of 92.81% and 103.02% from 1990. However, the corresponding DALY and death rates decreased from 209.65 to 182.64 per 100,000 population and from 9.96 to 9.13 per 100,000 population, respectively, with EAPCs of - 0.54 and - 0.36. The DALY and death rates rise with age, peaking in the 95 + age group. From 1990 to 2021, among regions, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in these rates, while Australasia, High-income North America, and Western Europe had the largest decreases. At the national level, Lesotho, Cabo Verde, and Georgia saw the largest increases in the DALY and death rates, while Austria, Australia, and Germany experienced the largest decreases. The correlation analysis showed that the DALY and death rates across 21 regions increased with rising SDI levels up to approximately 0.67, then declined and stabilized. Projections suggest a significant rise in DALY and death cases, with a slight increase in DALY and death rates. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of CRC attributable to a diet low in milk remains substantial among middle-aged and elderly populations globally, with significant age, sex, regional and national disparities. These findings highlight the need for targeted dietary interventions to mitigate the growing burden of CRC among middle-aged and elderly populations.