Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) represents a significant public health challenge for older adults. This study seeks to characterize the global burden of LOC among individuals aged 70 years and older from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: Data regarding the burden of LOC in the population aged 70 and above were retrieved from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. Temporal trends were evaluated by calculating the Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC). Decomposition analysis was carried out to measure the impact of epidemiological changes, population growth, and the aging process on the disease burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was then applied to project future trends in the burden of LOC up until 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of LOC among the global population aged 70 and above showed an upward trend. In 2021, the number of new cases globally was 135,982 (95% UI: 122,744 − 145,777), representing an increase of 203.75%. The number of prevalent cases was 377,131 (95% UI: 341,976 − 401,342), with an increase of 238.53%. The number of deaths was 78,105 (95% UI: 70,724 − 83,710), showing an increase of 167.03%. Notable regional disparities were evident, with South Asia demonstrating the highest burden of new LOC cases and deaths, whereas Western Europe reported the largest number of prevalent cases. Moreover, there are obvious gender differences, with males bearing a heavier burden. Epidemiological changes and Population growth were the main driving factors. It is predicted that the disease burden will show a clear upward trend up to 2030. CONCLUSION: The burden of LOC among the global population aged 70 and above is increasingly heavy. There is a need to formulate targeted intervention measures to alleviate the LOC burden in this population. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-025-03933-9.