Age-period-cohort analysis of global, regional, and national trends in laryngeal Cancer among older adults, 1990-2021: insights from the 2021 global burden of disease study

1990-2021年全球、区域和国家老年人喉癌趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析:来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的启示

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Laryngeal cancer poses a significant health burden among older adults, with varying incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across regions. These disparities highlight the need for targeted interventions and tailored healthcare policies. OBJECTIVES: To analyze global, regional, and national trends in laryngeal cancer incidence, mortality, and DALYs among older adults from 1990 to 2021 using age-period-cohort modeling and to assess the impact of demographic factors on disease burden across socio-developmental index (SDI) regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) were analyzed, with a focus on the impact of population growth and aging across SDI regions. Age-period-cohort and Joinpoint regression analyses were conducted to identify temporal trends and critical inflection points across SDI quintiles. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of laryngeal cancer among older adults decreased from 15.16 to 12.25 per 100,000, with significant shifts in trends observed in 1995, 2002, and 2007. The disease burden in lowand middle SDI regions has declined relatively slower compared to high SDI regions, primarily driven by population growth. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Laryngeal cancer trends highlight the need for targeted healthcare interventions. Low and middle SDI areas require improved access to care and prevention strategies, while high SDI regions benefit from personalized, geriatric-focused care.

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