Abstract
BACKGROUNDAdvanced outbreak analytics were instrumental in informing governmental decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, systematic evaluations of how modelling practices, data use and science-policy interactions evolved during this and previous emergencies remain scarce.AIMThis study assessed the evolution of modelling practices, data usage, gaps, and engagement between modellers and decision-makers to inform future global epidemic intelligence.METHODSWe conducted a two-stage semiquantitative survey among modellers in a large European epidemic intelligence consortium. Responses were analysed descriptively across early, mid- and late-pandemic phases. We used policy citations in Overton to assess policy impact.RESULTSOur sample included 66 modelling contributions from 11 institutions in four European countries. COVID-19 modelling initially prioritised understanding epidemic dynamics; evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination impacts later became equally important. Traditional surveillance data (e.g. case line lists) were widely available in near-real time. Conversely, real-time non-traditional data (notably social contact and behavioural surveys) and serological data were frequently reported as lacking. Gaps included poor stratification and incomplete geographical coverage. Frequent bidirectional engagement with decision-makers shaped modelling scope and recommendations. However, fewer than half of the studies shared open-access code.CONCLUSIONSWe highlight the evolving use and needs of modelling during public health crises. Persistent gaps in the availability of non-traditional data underscore the need to rethink sustainable data collection and sharing practices, including from for-profit providers. Future preparedness should focus on strengthening collaborative platforms, research consortia and modelling networks to foster data and code sharing and effective collaboration between academia, decision-makers and data providers.