Abstract
BACKGROUND: Metastatic liver tumor burden (LTB) is a prognostic factor affecting the survival of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs), but evaluation of the LTB usually depends on radiologic and functional imaging. This study aimed to develop a clinical model based on easily accessible clinicopathological markers to predict LTB level in GEP-NET patients. METHODS: LTB was quantified based on (68)Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT scan. The optimal cut-off value for high and low-LTB was determined based on our previous study. Serum levels of liver enzymes and tumor biomarkers were obtained within one week before PET/CT scan. The whole dataset was divided into training set and validation set. LASSO regression method was used to select predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical model which was further visualized by constructing a nomogram. Area under the curve (AUC) was applied to assess the accuracy of the constructed model. RESULTS: We retrospectively enrolled 200 patients with well-differentiated GEP-NETs. Ki-67 index, GGT (gamma-glutamyltransferase), LDH (lactate dehydrogenase), and NSE (neuron-specific enolase) were selected through the LASSO regression method, and a nomogram was built based on these variables. The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI, [0.708–0.862]) in the training set, and 0.783 (95% CI, [0.644–0.923]) in the validation set. Additionally, with the optimal cut-off values based on the nomogram total points, patients were categorized as LTB(high) (total points ≥ 26.2) and LTB(low) (total points < 26.2) groups presenting significantly different OS. CONCLUSION: A clinically applicable nomogram incorporating four clinicopathological characteristics was constructed to predict GEP-NET patients with high-LTB. The nomogram may help clinicians identify patients with high-LTB and take optimal treatment measures to improve prognosis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-025-14535-9.