Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study was undertaken to develop and validate a radiomics model based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE). METHODS: In this retrospective study, 149 HCC patients (81 for training, 36 for internal validation, 32 for external validation) treated with PA-TACE were included in two medical centers. Multiparametric radiomics features were extracted from three MRI sequences. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-COX regression was utilized to select radiomics features. Optimal clinical characteristics selected by multivariate Cox analysis were integrated with Rad-score to develop a recurrence-free survival (RFS) prediction model. The model performance was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Harrell's concordance index (C-index), and calibration curve. RESULTS: Fifteen optimal radiomic features were selected and the median Rad-score value was 0.434. Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-2.1, P = 0.022) and tumor size (HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.1-1.5, P = 0.001) were the independent predictors of RFS after PA-TACE. A combined model was established by integrating Rad-score, NLR, and tumor size in the training cohort (C-index 0.822; 95% CI 0.805-0.861), internal validation cohort (0.823; 95% CI 0.771-0.876) and external validation cohort (0.846; 95% CI 0.768-0.924). The calibration curve exhibited a satisfactory correspondence. CONCLUSION: A multiparametric MRI-based radiomics model can predict RFS of HCC patients receiving PA-TACE and a nomogram can be served as an individualized tool for prognosis.