Abstract
BACKGROUND: In recent years, clinicians often encounter patients with multiple pulmonary nodules in their clinical practices. As most of these ground glass nodules (GGNs) are small in volume and show no spicule sign, it is difficult to use Mayo Clinic Model to make early diagnosis of lung cancer accurately, especially in large numbers of nonsmoking women who have no tumor history. Other clinical models are disadvantaged by a relatively high false-positive or false-negative rate. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a new model of predicting malignancy or benignity of pulmonary GGNs for the sake of making accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer. METHODS: Included in this study were GGNs surgically resected from patients who were admitted to Yiwu Central Hospital from January 2018 to March 2024, including both male and female patients, there is no gender specific issue. The nature of all these GGN tissues was confirmed pathologically. The case data were statistically analyzed to establish a mathematical prediction model, the prediction performance of which was verified by the pathological results. RESULTS: Altogether 261 GGN patients met the inclusion criteria. Using the results of logistic regression analysis, a mathematical prediction equation was established as follows: Malignant probability (mP) = e(x)/ (1 + e(x)); when mP was > 0.5, the GGN was considered as malignant, and when mP was ≤ 0.5, it was considered as benign. x= -2.46 + 1.032*gender + 1.85*mGGN + 1.40*VCS-0.0027*mean CT value of the nodule + 0.078*maximum diameter of the nodule, where e represents the natural logarithm; if the patient was a female, gender = 1 (otherwise = 0); if the pulmonary nodule was a mixed GGN, mGGN = 1 (otherwise = 0); if the pulmonary nodule had vascular convergence sign, VCS = 1 (otherwise = 0). The prediction performance of the mathematical prediction model was verified as follows: the negative prediction value was 0.97156 and the positive prediction value was 0.3800 in the model group versus 1 and 0.25 in the verification group. CONCLUSION: In this study, we identified female gender, mGGN, VCS, mean CT value and maximum nodule diameter as five key factors for predicting malignancy or benignity of pulmonary nodules, based on which we established a mathematical prediction model. This novel innovation may provide a useful auxiliary tool for predicting malignancy and benignity of pulmonary nodules, especially in women patients.