Abstract
BACKGROUND: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most frequent histological type of thyroid carcinoma. Although an increasing number of diagnostic methods have recently been developed, the diagnosis of a few nodules is still unsatisfactory. Therefore, the present study aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive prediction model to optimize the diagnosis of PTC. METHODS: A total of 152 thyroid nodules that were evaluated by postoperative pathological examination were included in the development and validation cohorts recruited from two centres between August 2019 and February 2022. Patient data, including general information, cytopathology, imprinted gene detection, and ultrasound features, were obtained to establish a prediction model for PTC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis with a bidirectional elimination approach was performed to identify the predictors and develop the model. RESULTS: A comprehensive prediction model with predictors, such as component, microcalcification, imprinted gene detection, and cytopathology, was developed. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the developed model were 0.98, 97.0%, 89.5%, and 94.4%, respectively. The prediction model also showed satisfactory performance in both internal and external validations. Moreover, the novel method (imprinted gene detection) was demonstrated to play a role in improving the diagnosis of PTC. CONCLUSION: The present study developed and validated a comprehensive prediction model for PTC, and a visualized nomogram based on the prediction model was provided for clinical application. The prediction model with imprinted gene detection effectively improves the diagnosis of PTCs that are undetermined by the current means.