Abstract
Pancreatic cancer has an annual incidence of 2/10,000 in Canada, with a one-year mortality rate greater than 80%. In the absence of a cost-effectiveness analysis in Canada, this study's objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of olaparib versus a placebo in adult patients with deleterious or suspected deleterious BRCA metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, who did not show any progression for at least 16 weeks with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. A partitioned survival model with a 5-year time horizon was adopted to estimate the costs and effectiveness. All of the costs were extracted from the public payer's available resources, effectiveness data were obtained from the POLO trial, and Canadian studies were used for utility inputs. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were performed. The total costs of olaparib and the placebo over five years were CAD 179,477 and CAD 68,569, with overall quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 1.70 and 1.36, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the olaparib group compared with the placebo was CAD 329,517 per QALY. With a commonly cited willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of CAD 50,000 per QALY, the drug does not achieve acceptable cost-effectiveness mainly due to the high price of the medication and insufficient impact on the overall survival of patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer.