Abstract
INTRODUCTION: With demographic changes, there is increasing demand for individuals and governments to lengthen working lives. Jobs that are very physically demanding are likely to be more difficult to sustain at older ages. If workers at risk of mismatch of demand and capability could be identified early, there would be opportunities for intervention for health or lifestyle and/or re-training or redeployment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether self-reported walking speed (a good measure of function in elderly people) predicted health-related job loss (HRJL) longitudinally over 5 years of follow-up among middle-aged workers. DESIGN: Data came from the Health and Employment After Fifty (HEAF) prospective cohort study of middle-aged people (aged 50-64 years) in UK. SETTING: General population survey (sampling frame was 24 General Practice registers). PARTICIPANTS: The cohort included 8134 people recruited in 2013-2014. For the current analyses, 5217 people who ever worked and completed at least one follow-up questionnaire were eligible. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Exit from employment mainly or partly for health reasons (HRJL). RESULTS: At baseline, very slow walking speed was associated with: obesity, physical inactivity, smoking (men), financial hardship, lower educational attainment and not being in professional occupations. In total, 527 people (10%) reported at least one HRJL during follow-up. After adjustment, the HR for HRJL among men with very slow walking-speed was 4.32, 95% CI 2.72 to 6.87 and among women was 4.47, 95% CI 3.04 to 6.57. After further adjustment for 'difficulty coping with physical demands at work', hazards remained doubled in men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported walking speed could help identify older workers who are at increased risk of HRJL. This could provide opportunities for intervention through optimising health and lifestyle, restricting physical workload, retraining or redeployment. Early appropriate intervention could enable longer working lives and promote healthier, more equal ageing.