Abstract
BACKGROUND: Probabilistic decision analysis is a means of reflecting the uncertainty parameter in models and of presenting it in a comprehensible manner to decision-makers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model was constructed to compare the cementless and cemented total hip prostheses implanted at our department in terms of lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Revision rates were obtained from the Orthopaedic Prosthesis Register of the Laboratory of Medical Technology, Istituti Ortopedici Rizzoli, Bologna, Italy. RESULTS: The risk of early revision (at 5 years of follow-up) for cementless and cemented prostheses was 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively, resulting in equal QALY for the two implant types. Analysis of mean cost and QALY indicated that use of either implant is not associated with cost savings. DISCUSSION: Management with cementless or cemented total hip prostheses in a theoretical cohort of 70-year-old patients with fracture of the femoral neck or arthritis involving the hip is not significantly different according to the probabilistic results from the model.