Abstract
In 2011, we made predictions on the basis of data from the National Practice Benchmark (NPB) reports from 2005 through 2010. With the new 2011 data in hand, we have revised last year's predictions and projected for the next 3 years. In addition, we make some new predictions that will be tracked in future benchmarking surveys. We also outline a conceptual framework for contemplating these data based on an ecological model of the oncology delivery system. The 2011 NPB data are consistent with last year's prediction of a decrease in the operating margins necessary to sustain a community oncology practice. With the new data in, we now predict these reductions to occur more slowly than previously forecast. We note an ease to the squeeze observed in last year's trend analysis, which will allow more time for practices to adapt their business models for survival and offer the best of these practices an opportunity to invest earnings into operations to prepare for the inevitable shift away from historic payment methodology for clinical service. This year, survey respondents reported changes in business structure, first measured in the 2010 data, indicating an increase in the percentage of respondents who believe that change is coming soon, but the majority still have confidence in the viability of their existing business structure. Although oncology practices are in for a bumpy ride, things are looking less dire this year for practices participating in our survey.