Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to validate the accuracy of major-event risk models created in the multicenter J-ACCESS prognostic study in a new cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Three multivariable J-ACCESS risk models were created to predict major cardiac events (cardiac death, non-fatal acute coronary syndrome, and severe heart failure requiring hospitalization): Model 1, four variables of age, summed stress score, left ventricular ejection fraction and diabetes; Model 2 with five variables including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, continuous); and Model 3 with categorical eGFR. The validation data used three-year (3y) cohort of patients with CKD (n = 526, major events 11.2%). Survival analysis of low (< 3%/3y), intermediate (3% to 9%/3y), and high (> 9%/3y)-risk groups showed good stratification by all three models (actual event rates: 3.1%, 9.9%, and 15.9% in the three groups with eGFR ≥ 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2), P = .0087 (Model 2). However, actual event rates were equally high across all risk groups of patients with eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). CONCLUSION: The J-ACCESS risk models can stratify patients with CKD and eGFR ≥ 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2), but patients with eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) are potentially at high risk regardless of estimated risk values.