Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study assessed the direct, indirect and total effect of distal - political - risk indicators (affecting populations), and proximal risk indicators (affecting women) on the global prevalence of early childhood caries (ECC) in 3-5 year old children. METHODS: Data on global ECC prevalence were obtained from a prior study. Data for distal risk indicators (voice and accountability; political stability/absence of terrorism; control of corruption) were obtained from the World Bank Governance indicators, 2016. Data for proximal risk indicators (women's opportunity for leadership; percentage of female legislators, top officials and managers; basic employability status of women; ability of women to afford time off work to care for newborns; gross national income (GNI) per capita for females) were derived from the Human Development Index, 2016. Associations between variables were assessed with path analysis. RESULTS: Voice and accountability (β = - 0.60) and GNI per capita for females (β = - 0.33) were directly associated with a lower ECC prevalence. Political stability/absence of terrorism (β =0.40) and higher percentage of female legislators, senior officials and managers (β = 0.18) were directly associated with a higher ECC prevalence. Control of corruption (β = - 0.23) was indirectly associated with a lower ECC prevalence. Voice and accountability (β = 0.12) was indirectly associated with a higher ECC prevalence. Overall, voice and accountability (β = - 0.49), political stability/absence of terrorism (β = 0.34) and higher female GNI (β = - 0.33) had the greatest effects on ECC prevalence. CONCLUSION: Distal risk indicators may have a stronger impact on ECC prevalence than do proximal risk indicators.. Approaches to control ECC may need to include political reforms.