Abstract
Despite progress toward malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion, challenges remain owing to the emergence of drug resistance and the persistence of focal transmission reservoirs. Malaria transmission foci in Myanmar are heterogeneous and complex, and many remaining infections are clinically silent, rendering them invisible to routine monitoring. The goal of this research is to define criteria for easy-to-implement methodologies, not reliant on routine monitoring, that can increase the efficiency of targeted malaria elimination strategies. Studies have shown relationships between malaria risk and land cover and land use (LCLU), which can be mapped using remote sensing methodologies. Here we aim to explain malaria risk as a function of LCLU for five rural villages in Myanmar's Rakhine State. Malaria prevalence and incidence data were analyzed through logistic regression with a land use survey of ~1,000 participants and a 30-m land cover map. Malaria prevalence per village ranged from 5% to 20% with the overwhelming majority of cases being subclinical. Villages with high forest cover were associated with increased risk of malaria, even for villagers who did not report visits to forests. Villagers living near croplands experienced decreased malaria risk unless they were directly engaged in farm work. Finally, land cover change (specifically, natural forest loss) appeared to be a substantial contributor to malaria risk in the region, although this was not confirmed through sensitivity analyses. Overall, this study demonstrates that remotely sensed data contextualized with field survey data can be used to inform critical targeting strategies in support of malaria elimination.