Abstract
Overall response (OR) that combines complete (CR) and partial responses (PR) is the conventional end point for acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) trials. Because PR includes heterogeneous clinical presentations, reclassifying PR could produce a better end point. Patients in the primary treatment cohort from the Japanese Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy (JSTCT) were randomly divided into training and validation sets. In the training set, a classification and regression tree algorithm generated day 28 refined response (RR) criteria based on symptoms at treatment and day 28. We then evaluated RR for primary and second-line treatments, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and negative predictive value (NPV) for 6-month nonrelapse mortality as performance measures. RR considered patients with grade 0/1 at day 28 without additional treatment as responders. RR for primary treatment produced higher AUCs than OR with small improvement of NPVs in both validation sets: JSTCT (AUC, 0.73 vs 0.69 [P < .001]; NPV, 92.0% vs 89.6% [P < .001]) and the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC; AUC, 0.71 vs 0.68 [P = .032]; NPV, 90.9% vs 89.8% [P = .009]). RR for second-line treatment produced similar AUCs but much higher NPVs than OR in both validation sets of JSTCT (AUC, 0.64 vs 0.63 [P = .775]; NPV, 74.5% vs 66.0% [P < .001]) and MAGIC (AUC, 0.67 vs 0.64 [P = .105]; NPV, 86.8% vs 76.1% [P = .004]). Classifying persistent but mild skin symptoms as responses and residual lower gastrointestinal GVHD as nonresponses were major drivers in improving the prognostic performance of RR. Our externally validated day 28 RR would serve as a better end point than conventional criteria in future first- and second-line treatment trials.