Abstract
This review outlines the molecular disease states in kidney transplant biopsies as documented in the development of the Molecular Microscope Diagnostic System (MMDx). These states include T cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), recent parenchymal injury, and irreversible atrophy-fibrosis. The MMDx project, initiated through a Genome Canada grant, is a collaboration involving many centers. MMDx uses genome-wide microarrays to measure transcript expression, interprets the results using ensembles of machine learning algorithms, and generates a report. Experimental studies in mouse models and cell lines were extensively used to annotate molecular features and interpret the biopsy results. Over time, MMDx revealed unexpected aspects of the disease states: for example, AMR is usually C4d-negative and often DSA-negative, and subtle "Minor" AMR-like states are frequent. Parenchymal injury correlates with both reduced glomerular filtration rate and increased risk of graft loss. In kidneys with rejection, injury features, not rejection activity, are the strongest predictors of graft survival. Both TCMR and AMR produce injury, but TCMR induces immediate nephron injury and accelerates atrophy-fibrosis, whereas AMR induces microcirculation and glomerular damage that slowly leads to nephron failure and atrophy-fibrosis. Plasma donor-derived cell-free DNA levels correlate strongly with AMR activity, acute kidney injury, and in a complex way with TCMR activity. Thus, the MMDx project has documented the molecular processes that underlie the clinical and histologic states in kidney transplants, and provides a diagnostic tool that can be used to calibrate biomarkers, optimize histology interpretation, and guide clinical trials.