Abstract
BACKGROUND: Identifying patients at a risk of severe COVID-19 is crucial for prompt intervention and mortality risk mitigation. The monocyte distribution width (MDW) is an effective accurate predictor of sepsis in emergency settings, facilitating timely patient management. However, few reliable laboratory parameters are available for predicting the severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Thus, this study was conducted to investigate whether MDW can accurately predict the severity and progression of COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who had been admitted to our hospital between January 1, 2022, and September 31, 2022. The primary outcome was the development of critical illness, which was assessed in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for mechanical ventilation (MV), or mortality. The secondary outcomes were durations of ICU stay, MV, and hospital stay. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to estimate the risks of critical illness and mortality. RESULTS: Data from 878 patients with COVID-19 were analyzed. Of these, 258 (29.4%) developed critical illness. The high-MDW group (MDW > 22) showed a higher rate of critical illness (155/452, 34.29%) compared to the low-MDW group (103/426, 24.18%). Mortality was also higher in the high-MDW group (95/452, 21.02%) than in the low-MDW group (37/426, 8.69%). Patients with MDW > 22 exhibited a significantly higher risk of developing critical illness (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-2.04) and mortality (aOR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.63-3.74) compared to those with MDW ≤ 22. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that an elevated MDW value at presentation may serve as a promising predictor of severe outcomes in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. This underscores the need for further research to validate the utility of MDW in predicting critical illness among patients with viral pneumonia.