Abstract
BACKGROUND: Predictors of the outcome of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remain to be fully determined. We evaluated selected viral characteristics and immunological responses that might predict and/or correlate to the clinical outcome of COVID-19. METHODS: For individuals developing divergent clinical outcomes, the magnitude and breadth of T cell-mediated responses were measured within 36 h of symptom onset. Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells (PBMCs) were subjected to in vitro stimulation with SARS-CoV-2-based peptides. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 sequences were generated by metagenome, and HLA typing was performed using Luminex technology. FINDINGS: CD4(+) T cell activation was negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 basal viral load in patients with severe COVID-19 (p = 0·043). The overall cellular immune response, as inferred by the IFN-γ signal, was higher at baseline for patients who progressed to mild disease compared to patients who progressed to severe disease (p = 0·0044). Subjects with milder disease developed higher T cell responses for MHC class I and II-restricted peptides (p = 0·033). INTERPRETATION: Mounting specific cellular immune responses in the first days after symptom onset, as inferred by IFN-γ magnitude in the ELISPOT assay, may efficiently favor a positive outcome. In contrast, progression to severe COVID-19 was accompanied by stronger cellular immune responses, higher CD4 + T cell activation, and a higher number of in silico predicted high-affinity class I HLA alleles.