Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare the application of the ARIMA model, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the ARIMA-LSTM model in forecasting foodborne disease incidence. METHODS: Monthly case data of foodborne diseases in Liaoning Province from January 2015 to December 2023 were used to construct ARIMA, LSTM, and ARIMA-LSTM models. These three models were then applied to forecast the monthly incidence of foodborne diseases in 2024, and their predictions were compared with those of a baseline model. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the predicted and observed values using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), allowing identification of the optimal model. The best-performing model was subsequently employed to predict the monthly incidence for 2025. RESULTS: The ARIMA-LSTM model was identified as the optimal model. Specifically, the ARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1)1(2) model produced RMSE = 300.03, MAE = 187.11, and MAPE = 16.38%, while the LSTM model yielded RMSE = 408.71, MAE = 226.03, and MAPE = 17.21%. In contrast, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved RMSE = 0.44, MAE = 0.44, and MAPE = 0.08%, representing a dramatic improvement over the baseline model (RMSE = 204.17, MAE = 146.75, MAPE = 15.62%), with reductions of 99.5%, 99.7%, and 99.4% in RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, respectively. Based on the ARIMA-LSTM model, the predicted monthly cases of foodborne diseases for 2025 are: 214.62 (Jan), 260.84 (Feb), 462.92 (Mar), 590.92 (Apr), 800.88 (May), 965.11 (Jun), 2410.36 (Jul), 2651.36 (Aug), 1711.15 (Sep), 941.22 (Oct), 628.21 (Nov), and 465.05 (Dec). CONCLUSION: The ARIMA-LSTM model is considered the optimal model for predicting foodborne disease incidence in Liaoning Province in 2025.