Abstract
BACKGROUND: Optimal management of outpatients with heart failure (HF) requires serially updating the estimates of their risk for adverse clinical outcomes to guide treatment. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are becoming increasingly used in clinical care. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the inclusion of PROs can improve the risk prediction for HF hospitalization and death in ambulatory patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included consecutive patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved EF (HFpEF) seen in a HF clinic between 2015 and 2019 who completed PROs as part of routine care. Cox regression with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization and gradient boosting machine analyses were used to estimate risk for a combined outcome of HF hospitalization, heart transplant, left ventricular assist device implantation, or death. The performance of the prediction models was evaluated with the time-dependent concordance index (C(τ)). Among 1165 patients with HFrEF (mean age 59.1 ± 16.1, 68% male), the median follow-up was 487 days. Among 456 patients with HFpEF (mean age 64.2 ± 16.0 years, 55% male) the median follow-up was 494 days. Gradient boosting regression that included PROs had the best prediction performance - C(τ) 0.73 for patients with HFrEF and 0.74 in patients with HFpEF, and showed very good stratification of risk by time to event analysis by quintile of risk. The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall summary score, visual analogue scale and Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System dimensions of satisfaction with social roles and physical function had high variable importance measure in the models. CONCLUSIONS: PROs improve risk prediction in both HFrEF and HFpEF, independent of traditional clinical factors. Routine assessment of PROs and leveraging the comprehensive data in the electronic health record in routine clinical care could help more accurately assess risk and support the intensification of treatment in patients with HF.