Abstract
BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to determine the prognostic factors of keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue (KTSCC) and to establish a prognostic nomogram of KTSCC to assist clinical diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: This study identified 3874 patients with KTSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and these patients were randomly divided into the training (70%, (n = 2711) and validation (30%, n = 1163) cohorts. Cox regression was then used to filter variables. Nomograms were then constructed based on meaningful variables. Finally, the concordance index (C-index), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration charts, and decision-curve analysis (DCA), were used to evaluate the discrimination, accuracy and effectiveness of the model. RESULTS: A nomogram model was established for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 8-year overall survival (OS) probabilities of patients with KTSCC. The model indicated that age, radiotherapy sequence, SEER stage, marital status, tumor size, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, radiotherapy status, race, lymph node dissection status, and sex were factors influencing the OS of patients with KTSCC. Verified by C-index, NRI, IDI, calibration curve, and DCA curve, our model has better discrimination, calibration, accuracy and net benefit compared to the AJCC system. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified the factors that affect the survival of KTSCC patients and established a prognostic nomogram that can help clinicians predict the 3-, 5-, and 8-year survival rates of KTSCC patients.