Abstract
Twins suffer a disproportionately higher burden of adverse perinatal outcomes than singletons. However, the degree to which preterm delivery shapes the relationship between abruption and perinatal mortality in twins is unknown. Through causal mediation decomposition, we examine how preterm delivery mediates the effect of abruption on perinatal mortality among twins using the US-matched multiple birth data (1995-2000). We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) from Cox models with gestational age as the timescale. We decomposed the total effect (TE) into counterfactual natural direct (NDE) and natural indirect (NIE) effects. 557,220 matched twin births, 1.3% (n = 7032) resulted in abruption with higher perinatal mortality rates than non-abruption births (143 versus 36 per 1000 births, respectively) and a 4.53-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.23, 4.82) increased hazard of perinatal mortality. HRs for NDE and NIE were 3.05 (95% CI: 2.84, 3.24) and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.49, 1.47, 1.50), respectively, and the proportion mediated (PM) was 41%. PM increased as the gestational age at delivery decreased. Associations persisted after correction for unmeasured confounders. The best strategies to improve perinatal delivery are delivery when abruption complicates twin pregnancies at term gestations and expectant management (avoiding early preterm delivery), if feasible, when abruption complicates twin pregnancies at preterm gestations.