Abstract
BACKGROUND: Among hospitalized US Veterans, the rate of non-ventilator associated hospital acquired pneumonia (NV-HAP) decreased between 2015 and 2020 then increased following the onset of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19). METHODS: Veterans admitted to inpatient acute care for ≥48 hours at 135 Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Centers between 2015 and 2021 were identified (n = 1,567,275). Non-linear trends in NV-HAP incidence were estimated using generalized additive modeling, adjusted for seasonality and patient risk factors. RESULTS: The incidence rate (IR) of NV-HAP decreased linearly by 32% (95% CI: 63-74) from 10/1/2015 to 2/1/2020, translating to 337 fewer NV-HAP cases. Following the US onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020, the NV-HAP IR increased by 25% (95% CI: 14-36) among Veterans without COVID-19 and 108% (95% CI: 178-245) among Veterans with COVID-19, resulting in an additional 50 NV-HAP cases and $5,042,900 in direct patient care costs 12-months post admission. DISCUSSION: This increase in NV-HAP rates could be driven by elevated risk among Veterans with COVID-19, decreased prevention measures during extreme COVID-19 related system stress, and increased patient acuity among hospitalized Veterans during the first year of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Basic nursing preventive measures that are resilient to system stress are needed as well as population surveillance to rapidly identify changes in NV-HAP risk.