Abstract
BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease that affects 20% of children worldwide. Environmental factors including weather and air pollutants have been shown to be associated with AD symptoms. However, the time-dependent nature of such a relationship has not been adequately investigated. This paper aims to assess whether real-time data on weather and air pollutants can make short-term prediction of AD severity scores. METHODS: Using longitudinal data from a published panel study of 177 paediatric patients followed up daily for 17 months, we developed a statistical machine learning model to predict daily AD severity scores for individual study participants. Exposures consisted of daily meteorological variables and concentrations of air pollutants, and outcomes were daily recordings of scores for six AD signs. We developed a mixed-effect autoregressive ordinal logistic regression model, validated it in a forward-chaining setting and evaluated the effects of the environmental factors on the predictive performance. RESULTS: Our model successfully made daily prediction of the AD severity scores, and the predictive performance was not improved by the addition of measured environmental factors. Potential short-term influence of environmental exposures on daily AD severity scores was outweighed by the underlying persistence of preceding scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our data does not offer enough evidence to support a claim that weather or air pollutants can make short-term prediction of AD signs. Inferences about the magnitude of the effect of environmental factors on AD severity scores require consideration of their time-dependent dynamic nature.