Abstract
To study the association and possible predictive role of visfatin, resistin, fetuin-A and chemerin with incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM) among Asian Indians with prediabetes. Their association with insulin resistance, β-cell function, glycaemia and anthropometry were also studied. This is a nested case-control study of a large 2-year prospective prevention trial in persons at high risk of developing T2DM. Baseline HbA1c values between 6.0% (42 mmol/mol) and 6.2% (44 mmol/mol) were chosen for this analysis (n = 144). At follow-up, persons with incident T2DM (HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, 48 mmol/mol) were grouped as cases (n = 72) and those reverted to normoglycaemia, (HbA1c < 5.7% (39 mmol/mol) as controls (n = 72). Insulin resistance showed the strongest association with incident T2DM ((Odds Ratio (OR): 23.22 [95%CI 6.36-84.77]; p < 0.0001). Baseline visfatin (OR: 6.56 [95%CI 2.21-19.5]; p < 0.001) and fetuin-A (OR: 1.01 [95%CI (1.01-1.04)]; p < 0.0001) independently contributed to the conversion of prediabetes to T2DM. The contribution was significantly higher when their elevated levels coexisted (OR: 12.63 [95%CI 3.57-44.63]; p < 0.0001). The area under the curve was 0.77 ± SE 0.4 (95%CI 0.69-0.85) and 0.80 ± SE 0.04 (95%CI 0.73-0.88) for visfatin (median 17.7 ng/ml, sensitivity and specificity: 75%, p < 0.0001) and fetuin-A (mean 236.2 µg/ml, sensitivity: 71%, specificity: 75%, p < 0.0001) respectively. Higher baseline visfatin and fetuin-A concentrations are strongly associated with incident T2DM and are predictive of future diabetes.