Abstract
BACKGROUND: Long-term patterns of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) are poorly characterized among dialysis patients. OBJECTIVES: To identify different FGF23 trajectories and determine clinical factors that predict distinct FGF23 trajectories and whether FGF23 trajectories differ in regard to their associations with all-cause mortality among prevalent hemodialysis patients. METHODS: The HEMO study was a randomized multicenter study evaluating the effects of high-dose vs. standard-dose and high-flux vs. low-flux hemodialysis on mortality. We measured intact FGF23 levels in stored serum samples at baseline and annually among 919 HEMO participants and identified FGF23 trajectories using group-based modeling. Logistic regression determined predictors of trajectories. Cox regression models evaluated the association between trajectory and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We identified 5 distinct FGF23 trajectory groups during the initial 24 months: low stable, low increasing, elevated increasing, elevated decreasing, and elevated stable. In multivariable models, diabetes, high dose dialysis, no venous catheter, low serum calcium, phosphorus, and interleukin-6, no vitamin D analog use, and greater residual kidney function were associated with the low stable trajectory group compared to the elevated stable group. High flux dialysis, no venous catheter, and low serum phosphorus and 25-hydroxyvitamin D were associated with the elevated decreasing trajectory group compared to the elevated stable group. After full adjustment, the low stable trajectory group was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61; 95% CI -0.41-0.91) compared to the elevated stable trajectory group. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 5 distinct FGF23 trajectories over 24 months among HEMO study participants including a decreasing trajectory. The low stable FGF23 trajectory was associated with a reduced HR of all-cause mortality.