Abstract
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for cerebral ischemia. Identifying the presence of AF, especially in paroxysmal cases, may take time and lacks clear support in the literature regarding the optimal investigative approach; in resource-limited settings, identifying a higher-risk group for AF can assist in planning further investigation. OBJECTIVE: To develop a scoring tool to predict the risk of incident AF in the poststroke follow-up. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study with data collected from electronic medical records of patients hospitalized and followed up for cerebral ischemia from 2014 to 2021 at a tertiary stroke center. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiogram, and echocardiogram data, as well as neuroimaging data, were collected. Stepwise logistic regression was employed to identify associated variables. A score with integer numbers was created based on beta coefficients. Calibration and validation were performed to evaluate accuracy. RESULTS: We included 872 patients in the final analysis. The score was created with left atrial diameter ≥ 42 mm (2 points), age ≥ 70 years (1 point), presence of septal aneurysm (2 points), and score ≥ 6 points at admission on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS; 1 point). The score ranges from 0 to 6. Patients with a score ≥ 2 points had a fivefold increased risk of having AF detected in the follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) was of 0.77 (0.72-0.85). CONCLUSION: We were able structure an accurate risk score tool for incident AF, which could be validated in multicenter samples in future studies.