Abstract
PURPOSE: This single-centre cohort study was designed to identify factors that can predict primary tumour downstaging by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in rectal carcinoma. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from 555 patients with clinical T category (cT) cT3-4 rectal carcinoma treated between 1995 and 2019 were retrospectively analysed. All patients received long-term neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery with curative intent at the Department of Surgery, University Hospital Erlangen, Germany. Patient-, tumour- and treatment-related factors with a potential impact on the downstaging of rectal carcinoma to pathological T category (pT) ≤ ypT2 and ypT0 were analysed in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The prognosis of patients with and without downstaging of the primary tumour was compared. RESULTS: A total of 288 (51.9%) patients showed downstaging to ≤ ypT2. Eighty-six (15.5%) patients achieved clinical complete regression (ypT0). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the factors cT category, BMI, ECOG score, CEA, histological type, extension in the rectum and year of the start of treatment were found to be independent factors for predicting downstaging to ≤ ypT2 after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The year of treatment initiation also remained an independent significant predictor for pathological complete regression. The prognosis was superior in patients with downstaging to ≤ ypT2 in terms of locoregional and distant recurrence as well as disease-free and overall survival. CONCLUSION: Factors predicting downstaging after long-term nCRT could be identified. This may be helpful for counselling patients and selecting the optimal treatment for patients with advanced rectal carcinoma.