Abstract
PURPOSE: The ulcerative colitis colonoscopic index of severity (UCCIS) evaluates the state of the entire colonic mucosa in ulcerative colitis. However, no cut-off values of scores for predicting clinical relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis have been established. This study aimed to determine the cut-off values for predicting clinical relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis. METHODS: The endoscopic scores (sum of Mayo endoscopic subscores (S-MES) and UCCIS) of 157 patients with ulcerative colitis experiencing clinical remission and their subsequent clinical course were retrospectively reviewed. The optimal cut-off values for predicting relapse and relapse-free rates were analyzed by receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: Forty patients with ulcerative colitis experienced relapse within 24 months. The median UCCIS for these patients at the time of study enrollment was significantly higher than that for patients with clinical remission (P < 0.001). The cut-off value of the UCCIS for predicting relapse was 9.8. The relapse-free rate was significantly lower in patients with UCCIS ≥ 9.8 than in those with UCCIS < 9.8 (log-rank test P < 0.001). For patients who experienced relapse within 5 years, the optimal cut-off values for the UCCIS and S-MES were 10.2 and 1, respectively (P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: The data from this study indicate that the USSIC is a more relevant score than the S-MES for predicting the time to relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis in remission.