Abstract
BACKGROUND: Choledochal cyst with perforation (CC with perforation) rarely occurs, early diagnosis and timely treatment plan are crucial for the treatment of CC with perforation. This study aims to forecast the occurrence of CC with perforation. METHODS: All 1111 patients were conducted, who underwent surgery for choledochal cyst at our hospital from January 2011 to October 2022. We conducted univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen for independent predictive factors for predicting CC with perforation, upon which established a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. RESULTS: The age of children with choledochal cyst perforation is mainly concentrated between 1 and 3 years old. Logistic regression analysis indicates that age, alanine aminotransferase, glutamyl transpeptidase, C-reactive protein, vomiting, jaundice, abdominal distension, and diarrhea are associated with predicting the occurrence of choledochal cyst perforation. ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA curve analysis curves demonstrate that the nomogram has great discriminative ability and calibration, as well as significant clinical utility. CONCLUSION: The age of CC with perforation is mainly concentrated between 1 and 3 years old. A nomogram for predicting the perforation of choledochal cyst was established.