Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China. The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations (HRPs). METHODS: A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number (R (eff) ) from 4 to 6. Total number of infectious and asymptomatic cases were used to evaluated vaccination effectiveness. RESULTS: Our model showed that we could not prevent outbreaks when covering 80% of HRPs with booster unless R (eff) =4.0 or the booster vaccine had efficacy against infectivity and susceptibility of more than 90%. The results were consistent when the outcome index was confirmed cases or asymptomatic cases. CONCLUSIONS: An ideal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) booster vaccination strategy for HRPs would be expected to reach the initial goal to control the transmission of the Delta variant in China. Accordingly, the recommendation for the COVID-19 booster vaccine should be implemented in HRPs who are already vaccinated and could prevent transmission to other groups.