Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been going on for over a year and has reemerged in several regions. Therefore, understanding the covertness of COVID-19 is critical to more precisely estimating the pandemic size, especially the population of hidden carriers (those with very mild or no symptoms). METHODS: A stochastic dynamic model was proposed to capture the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 and to depict the covertness of COVID-19. The proposed model captured unique features of COVID-19, changes in the diagnosis criteria, and escalating containment measures. RESULTS: The model estimated that, for the epidemic in Wuhan, 79.8% (76.7%-82.7%) of the spread was caused by hidden carriers. The overall lab-confirmation rate in Wuhan up until March 8, 2020 was 0.17 (0.15-0.19). The diagnostic rate among patients with significant symptoms went up to 0.82 on March 8, 2020 from 0.43 on January 1, 2020 with escalating containment measures and nationwide medical supports. The probability of resurgence could be as high as 0.72 if containment measures were lifted after zero new reported (lab-confirmed or clinically confirmed) cases in a consecutive period of 14 days. This probability went down to 0.18 and 0.01 for measures lifted after 30 and 60 days, respectively. DISCUSSION: Consistent with the cases detected in Wuhan in mid-May, 2020, this study suggests that much of the COVID-19 pandemic is underreported and highly covert, which suggests that strict measures must be enforced continuously to contain the spread of the pandemic.