Abstract
AIMS: The extent to which metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity influences subclinical myocardial remodelling, heart failure (HF) incidence and subtypes, remains unclear. We assessed the association of MetS with incident HF (including ejection fraction subtypes) among Black individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 4069 Jackson Heart Study participants (mean age 54.4 years, 63.8% women, 37.2% with MetS) without HF. We categorized participants based on MetS status and MetS severity scores (based on waist circumference [MetS-Z-WC] and body mass index [MetS-Z-BMI]). We assessed the associations of MetS indices with echocardiographic parameters, biomarkers of myocardial damage (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I [hs-cTnI] and B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP]) and incident HF hospitalizations including HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). MetS severity was associated with subclinical cardiac remodelling (assessed by echocardiographic measures and biomarkers of myocardial damage). Over a median of 12 years, 319 participants developed HF (157 HFpEF, 149 HFrEF and 13 HF of unknown type). MetS was associated with a twofold greater risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.64-2.61). Compared to the lowest quartile (Q1) of MetS-Z-WC, the highest quartile (Q4) conferred a higher risk of HF (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.67-3.30), with a stronger association for HFpEF (Q4 vs. Q1: HR 4.94, 95% CI 2.67-9.14) vs. HFrEF (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.06-2.70). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic syndrome severity was associated with both HF subtypes among Black individuals, highlighting the importance of optimal metabolic health for preventing HF.